Goldman forecasts a $160B 2026 IPO rebound, but early deals show volatility and valuation pushback are already trimming and delaying listings.
On February 9, 2026, Goldman Sachs put a big number on a feeling many bankers have been trying to will into existence: the U.S. IPO market could rebound hard this year, with proceeds potentially reaching $160 billion and the number of IPOs doubling to about 120. [1] That’s not a “nice little recovery.” That’s a statement that the listing drought is over—at least for the right kinds of companies at the right valuations. But four days later, another reality check hit the tape: volatility and valuation pushback are already forcing issuers to cut deal sizes, reprice, or delay. [2] In other words, the market may be open—but it’s not a charity. The core decision: go public now, or wait for better pricing? The fundamental trade-off for late-stage private companies hasn’t changed. An IPO offers liquidity, currency (stock) for acquisitions/comp, and a broader capital base. But it also locks you into public-market scrutiny—quarterly disclosure, comparable-company benchmarks, and a shareholder base that can change its mind quickly. Goldman’s thesis, as reported on February 9, is that conditions are improving enough to restart the pipeline, and the backlog is stacked with headline names. [1] Some of the most anticipated candidates cited in reporting include SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—the kind of companies that can pull capital toward the entire IPO calendar simply by showing up. [1] Goldman also flagged a wide range around its base case—$80 billion to $200 billion in possible proceeds—because the key variable isn’t “interest.” It’s clearing prices. [1] When markets are calm and multiples are stable, buyers underwrite growth with more confidence. When markets lurch, investors demand a wider discount for uncertainty, and issuers find themselves choosing between (a) taking less money / a lower valuation or (b) waiting. **Early 2026 is already showing the friction** By February 13, 2026, Reuters reported multiple examples of that friction in action: companies trimming their ambitions or stepping back entirely when market conditions didn’t cooperate. [2] One company postponed after reducing its fundraising target substantially; others adjusted deal terms and still saw weak aftermarket performance. [2] This matters because it tells you where bargaining power sits right now. Bankers can line up meetings; they can’t force institutional PMs to pay yesterday’s multiples. One plausible reading is that we’re moving from a “closed” IPO market to a selectively open one: large, must-own stories can still get done, while anything that smells like “sell me growth at any price” is going to face a haircut. That’s not bearish—just adult. **The incentive structure: issuers want liquidity; investors want a discount** IPOs are negotiations between sellers who think their businesses deserve to be priced on future potential and buyers who have learned—again—that narratives don’t pay the bills if cash flows arrive late (or not at all). When software multiples compress, ...Value Investing Hub
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